070
FXUS62 KCHS 272357
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
757 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW AVIATION SECTION. REMOVED KEY MESSAGE #1.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- 2) DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WITH
WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST.
- 3) DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MOULTRIE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY ON LAKE MOULTRIE TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE LAKE
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING WITH ITS
PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH WAVES BUILDING 2-3 FT. THE HIGHEST
WINDS AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME MINOR LAKESHORE EROSION AND OVER SPLASH ALONG THE LAKE'S
SOUTH SIDE, INCLUDING AROUND PINOPOLIS, LIONS BEACH AND SHORT
STAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING THEN DROP
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (SUSTAINED 20 KT OR
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT) BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 2 PM SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER: A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT FIRE
WEATHER EVENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK. MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S INLAND WITH MID-
UPPER 30S ALONG PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE A BIT MORE OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW THERE DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE.
AS TEMPERATURES MAX OUT IN THE 60S (POSSIBLY AROUND 70 IN SPOTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA), RH WILL REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY
LATE MORNING AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15-25% RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, A TAD HIGHER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST.
NORTH WINDS 15-25 MPH INLAND/20-30 MPH COAST WITH GUSTS 30-35
MPH INLAND/30-40 MPH COAST WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX SOME. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH WILL NOT BE PERFECTLY ALIGNED THERE
WILL BE ABOUT A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ESPECIALLY HIGH FOR THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE FOR
THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.
STATE, FEDERAL AND MILITARY LAND MANAGERS CONTINUE TO REPORT
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS OWING TO SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. ERRATIC AND VOLATILE FIRE BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN OBSERVED
WITH CONTROLLED BURNS AND WILDFIRES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RH, WINDS
AND THE ONGOING FUELS/FIRE BEHAVIOR SITUATION, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT COASTAL PORTIONS OF LIBERTY
AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES, VALID FROM 8 AM UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.
COASTAL WINDS: COASTAL WINDS WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPING GALES ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INDUCED BY A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS OF
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME AREAS
ALONG THE BEACHES POSSIBLY GUSTING 40-45 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES FROM 8 AM UNTIL 2
PM SATURDAY. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN DOWN TREES AND LARGE
BRANCHES. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY, THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. LAMP
MOS INDICATES LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS AND
KZJI FOR 1-2 HRS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT WE DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY,
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START
TO SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT, LIKELY
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OWING TO A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME POST FRONTAL COLD
AIR ADVECTION. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE WATERS A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SUSTAINED GALES
POSSIBLE OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THE FORECAST WILL
SHOW 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 30-35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
EVEN IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES LOOK
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE. THE GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING TO REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS. THE
RISK FOR GALES SHOULD END ACROSS THE HARBOR AND NEARSHORE
WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL PEAK 6-9 FT NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 9-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REPLACE
THE GALE WARNINGS ONCE THEY EXPIRE.
HIGH SURF: BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 5-6 FT ALONG PARTS OF
THE GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 27:
KCHS: 87/2021 -- REACHED 89 TODAY
KCXM: 81/2021 -- REACHED 82 TODAY
KSAV: 89/2021 -- REACHED 89 TODAY
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137-138-140.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
SC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
JRL/ST
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