760
FXUS62 KCHS 281131
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2) DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT ALONG WITH WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST.
- 3) DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, SHIFTING FAR OFFSHORE AT DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL GENERATE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS THIS MORNING. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH 2 PM.
WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
RISES LESSEN. ADDITIONALLY, WAVES SHOULD BE 2-3 FT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTER AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT ALONG WITH WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, SHIFTING FAR OFFSHORE AT DAYBREAK.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL PASS FAR TO OUR NORTH LATE
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL USHER EXTREMELY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS INTO
OUR AREA, CREATING DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS IS TYPICAL
FOR THIS TYPE OF SPRING PATTERN, MODELS DON'T ADEQUATELY CAPTURE
JUST HOW DRY IT WILL BE. THEREFORE, WE WENT MUCH DRIER THAN
GUIDANCE, GOING WITH THE NBM10 FOR DEW POINTS. THIS MATCHES UP WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE HREF. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS, BUT REMAIN HIGHER AT/NEAR
THE BEACHES. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER TEENS VERY FAR INLAND, WHILE GENERALLY BEING IN THE
LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH HIGHER VALUES AT/NEAR THE
BEACHES. THESE VALUES WILL BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHERLY, THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE MORNING, PEAKING IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE ACROSS OUR SC COUNTIES AND THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ACROSS OUR GA
COUNTIES. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES LESSEN. THIS IS WHEN RH VALUES WILL
REALLY DROP. SO THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES WON'T LINE
UP PERFECTLY. HOWEVER, STATE, MILITARY, AND FEDERAL LAND MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES HAVE REPORTED SOME EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH CONTROLLED
BURNS AND A FEW WILDFIRES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS ON TOP OF
THE ONGOING DROUGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES, EXCEPT COASTAL PORTIONS OF LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES,
UNTIL 8 PM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WON'T START TO RECOVER UNTIL THIS
EVENING, WITH MODEST RECOVERIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
COASTAL WINDS: THE COASTAL WINDS WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY GALES
ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE BEACHES POSSIBLY
GUSTING 40-45 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
OUR COASTAL ZONES UNTIL 2 PM. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN DOWN TREES
AND LARGE BRANCHES. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
A MAINLY DRY/ZONAL PATTERN LATE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
A PERIOD OF STRONG MID-LVL RIDGING ALONG WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, FAVORING A WARMING
TREND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE MID-LVL RIDGE AXIS IS
PLACED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE
LOW-MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST (SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES) TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THERE COULD BE A 2-3 HR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS AT CHS/JZI TERMINALS
THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED AS A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH
SITES FROM 12-15Z SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS AT SAV AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY GUSTING INTO THE
25-30 KT BETWEEN 12-21Z SATURDAY AT CHS/JZI AND 14-20Z SATURDAY
AT SAV. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING, DROPPING BELOW 10KT AT
AT TAF SITES AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO
15-20 KT COULD LINGER AT JZI SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPO
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LOCAL WATERS
FROM THE NORTH A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, LEADING TO CONDITIONS
THAT QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PROMOTES LOW-LVL
MIXING INTO 40-45 KT 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS. THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY YIELD
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE (35-40 KT) AND BUILDING SEAS
STARTING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED NEAR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR ENTRANCE. AS A RESULT, GALE WARNINGS BEGIN SHORTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SC AND CHARLESTON HARBOR WATERS WITH THE PASSING FRONT,
FOLLOWED BY REMAINING WATERS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE RISK FOR
GALES SHOULD END ACROSS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND NEARSHORE WATERS
BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 5-9 FT RANGE ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 9-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REPLACE THE
GALE WARNINGS ONCE THEY EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND COULD PERSIST DUE TO LARGE SEAS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY
(NEARSHORE) AND INTO MONDAY (OUTER GEORGIA WATERS).
HIGH SURF: BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 5-6 FT ALONG PARTS OF
THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137-138-140.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ048>051.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-352-354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
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