969
FXUS62 KCHS 282152
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
552 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
- 2) MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM WITH NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE HIGH WILL USHER EXTREMELY DRY AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS INTO OUR AREA, CREATING DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST
INLAND AREAS, BUT REMAIN HIGHER AT/NEAR THE BEACHES. THIS WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 25% FAR INLAND, WITH
HIGHER VALUES AT/NEAR THE BEACHES. ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE MORNING, PEAKING IN
THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS OUR SC COUNTIES AND THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE ACROSS OUR GA COUNTIES. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT. STATE, MILITARY,
AND FEDERAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES HAVE REPORTED SOME EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH CONTROLLED BURNS AND A FEW WILDFIRES OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS ON TOP OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES, EXCEPT
COASTAL PORTIONS OF LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES, UNTIL 8 PM.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER THIS EVENING, WITH MODEST
RECOVERIES EXPECTED TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS COULD AGAIN BECOME CRITICAL SUNDAY AS GUSTS COULD
PEAK AROUND 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 40% WHICH IS ABOVE THE
"CRITICAL" CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT COULD
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND OVERALL DIRE FORESTRY
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEXT
WEEK, YIELDING A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION, FAVORING A WARMING
TEMPERATURE TREND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
MID-WEEK. THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR SOME WEAK
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY, HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITIES OF >0.5" ARE ZERO ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF ENS AND THE
GEFS. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURES POPS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-WEEK IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE, HOWEVER THESE ARE
LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RATHER
LOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING THE
REGION ITS FIRST REAL CHANCE AT MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
29/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 30/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION: PREVAILING VFR INTO NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK
SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE
LOW-LVL MIXING INTO 40-45 KT 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS.
THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY YIELD NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE (35-40 KT) AND
BUILDING SEAS STARTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE RISK
FOR GALES SHOULD END ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 5-9 FT RANGE ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 9-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REPLACE THE GALE
WARNINGS ONCE THEY EXPIRE, AND COULD PERSIST DUE TO ELEVATED
SEAS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY (NEARSHORE) AND INTO MONDAY (OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS).
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: PREVAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
YIELD SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MARINE
WATERS THROUGH MID- WEEK.
HIGH SURF: THE LATEST NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS 5-6 FT BREAKERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA BEACHES THIS EVENING AND EXPANDING
NORTH ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY. MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE
BREAKERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME PENDING FURTHER MODEL TRENDS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137-138-140.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
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