883
FXUS62 KCHS 282347
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
747 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING AND TO
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.
- 2) MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS COULD AGAIN BECOME CRITICAL SUNDAY AS GUSTS COULD
PEAK AROUND 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 40% WHICH IS ABOVE THE
"CRITICAL" CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED GIVEN THE ONGOING DIRE FUEL SITUATION AND EARLIER
REPORTED FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH RH BELOW 60%.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEXT
WEEK, YIELDING A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION, FAVORING A WARMING
TEMPERATURE TREND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
MID-WEEK. THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR SOME WEAK
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY, HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITIES OF >0.5" ARE ZERO ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF ENS AND THE
GEFS. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURES POPS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-WEEK IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE, HOWEVER THESE ARE
LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RATHER
LOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING THE
REGION ITS FIRST REAL CHANCE AT MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
29/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 30/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION: PREVAILING VFR INTO NEXT WEEK. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK
SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS WERE DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WERE MAINTAINED UNTIL 2 AM OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS WERE THE RISK FOR GALES CONTINUES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: PREVAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
YIELD SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MARINE
WATERS THROUGH MID- WEEK.
HIGH SURF: THE LATEST NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS 5-6 FT BREAKERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA BEACHES THIS EVENING AND EXPANDING
NORTH ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY. MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE
BREAKERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME PENDING FURTHER MODEL TRENDS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
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