583
FXUS62 KCHS 310629
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
229 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ONGOING WARMING TREND
THIS WEEK. KEY MESSAGE 2 HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR
THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
AN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WHILE RIDGING DOMINATES ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST (GENERALLY
INLAND OF HIGHWAY 17) EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY APRIL NORMALS. LOWS
WILL ALSO BE SEASONALLY MILD.
OTHERWISE, WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK, SO
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL. UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR
WIDESPREAD D2-D3 DROUGHT CONDITIONS, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE, THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY, LEADING
TO ANOTHER WARM DAY. NBM IS SHOWING A RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES, SO IT SEEMS HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE GOOD BET. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND IMPACT
MINIMAL TO INTRODUCE IN THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT EAST/SOUTHWEST
WIND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE, FAVORING
CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A MAJORITY OF
WATERS. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS, WHERE
LINGERING 6 FT SEAS PERSIST INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THIS
NOTED AREA AS WELL, LEADING TO RATHER QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND NIGHT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING WINDS/SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF WATERS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS, WHERE SEAS BUILD BACK TO 6 FT
LATE WEEK AS A SLIGHT PACKING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURS. A
MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.
DPB/ETM
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