784
FXUS62 KCHS 311135
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WHILE RIDGING DOMINATES ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST
(GENERALLY INLAND OF HIGHWAY 17) EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
APRIL NORMALS. LOWS WILL ALSO BE SEASONALLY MILD.
OTHERWISE, WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK,
SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL. UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR
WIDESPREAD D2-D3 DROUGHT CONDITIONS, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE, THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM DAY. NBM IS SHOWING A RELATIVELY
SMALL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES, SO IT SEEMS HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE
GOOD BET. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT ALL
TERMINALS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 12Z, BUT IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL
AND ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECT RATHER QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND NIGHT.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING WINDS/SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF WATERS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS, WHERE SEAS BUILD
BACK TO 6 FT LATE WEEK AS A SLIGHT PACKING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OCCURS. A MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS OCCURS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A
PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB/ETM
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