484
FXUS62 KCHS 311822
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
222 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
ALOFT, RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE,
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED UNDER THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC.
OVERALL, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CONVECTION. LATE IN THE WEEK, THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME A BIT LESS HOSTILE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE WARM PROFILES AND
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR INLAND PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AND RAIN CHANCES ARE NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT, THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASE IN
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES,
THOUGH IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST BRINGING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO THE
COAST, A LOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG AROUND THE TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA, WHICH COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
OVERALL, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEST ONSHORE FLOW, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY
NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS, IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. THE
BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD LIKELY COME BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW IS POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR 5-6 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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