531
FXUS62 KCHS 011131
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL ALTHOUGH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OR TWO
COULD MAKE A RUN FOR SHORE. THE PATTERN LARGELY FAVORS LIMITED
DIURNAL CONVECTION, BUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL GET GOING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY APRIL NORMALS. HIGHS
PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHILE LOWS STAY
SEASONALLY MILD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
LOOKS UNLIKELY AS LATEST NBM INDICATES THE PROBABILITY FOR >0.50" IN
24 HOURS IS ONLY 10-30%, BUT CERTAINLY ANY RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
FROPA.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
REMAINING MIFG AT THE TERMINALS IS LIKELY TO ERODE BY AROUND 12Z
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TODAY AND LIKELY THROUGH A BULK OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG/SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-12Z THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING 6SM MIFG AT
ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, BUT TEMPO GROUPS FOR PATCHY FOG COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING WINDS/SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF WATERS. SUBTLE COASTAL
TROUGHING COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS/HIGHER SEAS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB/ETM
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