142
FXUS62 KCHS 012320
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
720 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
WHILE BROAD UPPER-LVL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LARGELY PREVAIL AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO NUDGE ITSELF
ONSHORE. AS A RESULT, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL YIELD WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS. IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE). IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD LIMITED
DIURNAL CONVECTION, HOWEVER ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH
THE WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PRESENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS, ANY PRECEDING CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MORNING PERIOD WHEN INSTABILITY IS AT ITS
DIURNAL MINIMUM. THEREFORE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR CHANGES. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY AS LATEST NBM INDICATES THE PROBABILITY FOR
>0.50" IN THE 24-HOUR PERIOD IS ONLY 10-30%, BUT CERTAINLY ANY RAIN
WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT. NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG AT ALL TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE MORNING, HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE QUICKLY
WITH DAYBREAK MINIMIZING ANY IMPACTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL. AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SETS
UP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON, SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3
FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING WINDS/SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGHING COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY/MONDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS/HIGHER SEAS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/CPM/DENNIS
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