249
FXUS62 KCHS 020640
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
240 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS
BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT INCREASING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH AN
ARRIVING COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OF
THE TWO DAYS, FRIDAY MAY SEE HIGHER COVERAGE WITH A BIT OF UPPER
SUPPORT AND AN INVERTED TROUGH MAKING A RUN FOR THE COAST. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY APRIL NORMALS. MOST LOCATIONS INLAND OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY, WHILE
LOWS REMAIN SEASONALLY MILD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM STILL
DOESN'T APPEAR TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH NBM SHOWING THE
PROBABILITY FOR >0.50" IN THE 24-HOUR PERIOD IS LESS THAN 25%, WITH
>1" GENERALLY 5% OR LESS. WHILE STRONGER WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO MOVE
IN, INSTABILITY PROGS ARE RATHER WEAK, SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND FROPA, NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL A MID LEVEL WAVE COULD PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING. THIS COULD BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA. GEFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO, WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH AND DRIER OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, 6SM MIFG REMAINS AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 08-1230Z
THIS MORNING, AND COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE/DURATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR GROUPS AT
THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND 00Z FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PATCHY
FOG/SHALLOW FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS A FEW HOURS
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY HIGHER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTING EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT
TODAY TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE DAY AND NIGHT. A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH
ANY WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NEARBY. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT TODAY, THEN SLOWLY BUILD TO 3-5 FT
TONIGHT, LARGEST ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING WINDS/SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS EARLY WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF LOCAL WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND COULD PERSIST WITH A
SECOND FRONT/ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVING/DEVELOPING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB/ETM
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