141
FXUS62 KCHS 040635
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
235 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY. KEY MESSAGE 2 WAS
ADDED TO ADDRESS THE RIP CURRENT THREAT ON SUNDAY. THE AVIATION
SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARM TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES TODAY.
- 2) MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL AREA BEACHES ON
SUNDAY.
- 3) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BERMUDA WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST, YIELDING AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. ALOFT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THERE ARE VERY
LOW CHANCES THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING HOURS COULD RESULT
IN A WEAK SHOWER IMPACTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE THE NAM AND THE
HRRR SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN
THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IS VERY LOW, SO THE FORECAST DOES NOT
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE RAIN AT THIS TIME. A PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TODAY, PUSHING INLAND OF I-95 AROUND NOON/1 PM. ANY
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH
INTO THE LOW 80S, WITH SOME MID 80S ACROSS INLAND SE GA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL AREA BEACHES
ON SUNDAY.
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND STEADY WAVES, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES FOR TODAY. FOR SUNDAY, INCREASING
SWELLS WITH 3 TO 4 FOOT BREAKER WAVES AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE-NORMAL GIVEN LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES
(ESATS), RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE REGION, THOUGH AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE
UPPER 70S. CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT SOME WEAK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON GIVEN THE ON-GOING WARM-AIR
ADVECTION AT 850MB, THOUGH A PEEK AT A FEW OF THE LONG-RANGE HIGH
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE WIND FIELDS DO LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, PROBABILITIES FOR
1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE NBM HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY INTO THE 20-30%
RANGE, WHICH LOOKS TO BE REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC MUCAPE PROFILES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THE LOWER END, WITH THE
VARIOUS AI/ML OUTPUT SIMILARLY SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, HIGHEST ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES
WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5). IN
REGARD TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, DESPITE OVERALL MOISTURE BEING
PLENTIFUL WITH ESATS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 1.5"
AND ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE WRT CLIMATOLOGY, THE FORCING
MECHANISM FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK. THUS, MOST
GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 0.5 INCH, THOUGH
MOST WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN A 0.25 INCHES. THUS, DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
FROPA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S CONTINUING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY DIVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, MODEL CERTAINTY
WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS POOR, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PUT TOO MUCH
CONFIDENCE BEHIND ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV.
SOME SHALLOW GROUND COULD DEVELOP NEAR KSAV JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF SOME
WEAK SHOWERS IMPACTING KCHS/KJZI THIS MORNING, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE LEVELS WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
THIS AFTERNOON THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS WEST OF
THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A SURGE IN WINDS
AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MORNING MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS MOST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/CPM
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