122
FXUS62 KCHS 042232
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
632 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PUSH PWS ABOVE 1.6" BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED
WITH MODERATE DIABATIC AND ADIABATIC HEATING, WILL YIELD POCKETS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE. A BAND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST UNTIL THE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRETTY WEAK (~5.5C)
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL ONLY BE 20-25 KT, SO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A FEW PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.50" IN MOST AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
05/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE RISK FOR TSTMS IMPACTS LOOK
GREATEST AT KCHS AND KJZI WHERE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW FROM APPROACHING
FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM THE WEST COULD CONCENTRATE CONVECTION
NEAR BOTH OF THOSE TERMINALS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. VCTS WAS
HIGHLIGHTED 21-00Z FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. NO
MENTION FOR TSRA WAS INCLUDED AT KSAV RIGHT NOW AS ACTIVITY THAT
FAR TO THE SOUTH MAY BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS IT APPROACHES
THE GEORGIA COAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: SE WINDS 5-10 KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SSW BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A SURGE IN WINDS
AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MORNING MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS MOST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS:
SUNDAY: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY S TO SW WINDS AND A 3 FT SE
SWELL NEAR 8 SECONDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
MONDAY: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NE WINDS AND A 3 FT SE SWELL
NEAR 9 SECONDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE GEORGIA BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page