051
FXUS62 KCHS 071121
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
- 2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH, WHILE RH VALUES DIP TO
AS LOW AS 25%. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY DRY FUELS
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL ZONES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GUSTY NE WINDS AND CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
REQUIRED. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY JUST SHY OF REACHING
CRITERIA. IN ADDITION TO FIRE DANGER, THE GUSTY NE WINDS MAY
REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED-FRI ALONG THE SC/GA COAST AS A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SWELLS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AT ALL
AREA BEACHES.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NE WINDS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL
TERMINALS, PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS WILL
INITIALLY WANE WITH NIGHTFALL, HOWEVER THEY WILL LIKELY RETURN
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR, WITH BREEZY NE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
MARINE
PERSISTENT MODERATE NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
SEAS STEADILY BUILDING. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH SOLID
GALES BEGINNING DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DURING THE PERIOD OF TIGHTEST GRADIENT, WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HEADLINES REMAINING UNCHANGED. FOR THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR, CURRENTLY HAVE STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING 35 KNOT GUSTS AT
40%. WINDS WEAKEN FROM GALE STRENGTH TO SCA ON THURSDAY, FURTHER
WEAKENING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SETTLE BELOW 6 FEET INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, FURTHER INTO SUNDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE
GEORGIA ZONE. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE MAY
FORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST, THOUGH WINDS DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
BEACH EROSION AND HIGH SURF: BEACH EROSION COULD IMPACT THE BEACHES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SEAS BUILD 8-10 FEET ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BEACHES FROM 8 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM THURSDAY, WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT BREAKER WAVES
EXPECTED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ374.
APT/CPM
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