465
FXUS62 KCHS 080029
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
829 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ON WEDNESDAY. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH MID WEEK.
- 2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MID-20S DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL RH OF 20-30%. NE WINDS 15-20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW RH TO CREATE AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SWELLS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AT ALL AREA
BEACHES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS, STARTING UP
TONIGHT AROUND 06Z AT CHS/JZI, THEN 11Z AT SAV WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST/EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE WILL BE COMMON AT ALL
TERMINALS. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 35 KT AT JZI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR. BREEZY NE WINDS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
THIS SETUP WILL YIELD INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS (OUTSIDE
CHARLESTON HARBOR), ONGOING IN THE OUTER GA WATERS THIS EVENING,
THEN EXPANDING INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. THE GALE
WARNINGS THEN REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 45
KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL EVEN BE CLOSE
TO GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHORT-LIVED GALE WARNING COULD BE NEEDED THERE AS WELL. FURTHERMORE,
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT GALES FOR THE WATERS COULD
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXISTING WARNING
AREA, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT WARNINGS COULD NEED TO
BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
ONCE THE GALE WARNINGS COME DOWN, THEY WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ON FRIDAY, BUT SEAS COULD REMAIN QUITE
ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH SURF: WITH VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR 5+ FT BREAKERS IN
THE SURF ZONE, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY. AT LEAST MINOR BEACH EROSION CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH 5+ FT BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ350-352-354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
BSH/DPB/JRL
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