233
FXUS62 KCHS 090110
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
910 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 1 AND THE
MARINE SECTION FOR ONGOING TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- 2) HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVED
COMPARED TO CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ~15 PERCENT HIGHER,
AND WINDS WON'T BE NEARLY AS GUSTY. HOWEVER, FUELS REMAIN
EXTREMELY DRY THANKS TO THE PROLONGED SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
IN PLACE. SO, THOUGH WE MIGHT NOT REACH EXPLICIT FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT CRITERIA, IT IS POSSIBLE ONE COULD STILL BE ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND ANOTHER HIGH RISK COULD BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
HAZE/SMOKE AT CHS THIS EVENING, MAINLY UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT, BUT COULD
EVENTUALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY (AROUND 20 KT), BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING MORE EAST/EAST-NORTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT A GALE EVENT IS ONGOING, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH GUSTS
LIKELY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END EITHER LATE
THIS EVENING OR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND WILL
NEED TO BE REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE GRADIENT WILL
REALLY START TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE DIRECTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
MARINE CONDITIONS TO STEADILY IMPROVE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD COME DOWN
EVERYWHERE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
PATTERN FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ONSHORE FLOW TOPPING OUT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
HIGH SURF: COASTAL WEB CAMS SHOW A VERY DISTURBED SURF ZONE, AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH AND
SEAS UP TO 10 FEET AT 41008 AND UP TO 12 FEET AT 41004. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME MUCH
MORE MARGINAL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG
AND SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN AS WELL. WE WILL KEEP THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW, BUT ITS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
CANCELED EARLY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354-374.
BSH/DPB
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