327
FXUS62 KCHS 180616
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
216 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED
AGAIN TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, DETAILS CONTINUE TO COME INTO FOCUS
FOR TOMORROWS COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RECORD-SETTING HEAT POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 3) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD-SETTING HEAT POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES.
H5 RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IS SHOWING TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS... SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR MORE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES D4/EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT OVER A SMALL PORTION OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA, WITH A RECENT
EXPANSION OF THE D3/EXTREME DROUGHT TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
REMAINING AREA. THESE PERSISTENT, VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID-20S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON MERIT ATTENTION FROM A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT,
THOUGH WIND GUSTS COINCIDENT WITH THESE MIN RHS ONLY REACHING
TO AROUND 15 MPH PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARD
PRODUCTS. NONETHELESS, WE ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY CAUSE A SPARK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SE
GA/SC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN COOLING
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, DURING THE MID-DAY HOURS.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW H7 WITH
LITTLE TO NO SBCAPE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNMEASURABLE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 0.01" TO 0.03".
IN FACT, HREF INDICATES LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 0.05" ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
INDICATES LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING MAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY SHOULD FAVOR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHICH IS NEAR
THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH CAA AND CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO MONDAY'S VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF THE NEW MOON (YESTERDAY) AND PERIGEE
(TOMORROW) WILL BRING ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
TIDE LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN WITH THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE, BUT THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY AND
THE DIRECTION OF THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THE SEA BREEZE CROSSES THE TERMINALS MIDDAY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH POST SEA BREEZE WINDS BEING
STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
MARINE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH 20 KT
GUSTS BECOMING MORE FREQUENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NNE BY SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD FROM 2-3 FT ON SUNDAY TO 3-8 FT BY DAWN MONDAY. A
PORTION OF THE MARINE ZONES MAY BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY, REMAINING INTO
THE MID-WEEK. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ALL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 2-3 FT
BREAKERS, MODEST ONSHORE FLOW, AND INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH LUNAR PERIGEE/NEW MOON. AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS A
PINCHED GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A
GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 18:
KCHS: 92/1967
KSAV: 93/1967
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CEB/NED
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