018
FXUS62 KCHS 182338
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RECORD-SETTING HEAT POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD-SETTING HEAT POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LINGERS OVERHEAD, WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. WITH THE AID
OF SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SHOULD SEE THESE VALUES RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN CHALLENGE
DAILY RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES D4/EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT OVER A SMALL PORTION OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA, WITH A RECENT
EXPANSION OF THE D3/EXTREME DROUGHT TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
REMAINING AREA. THESE PERSISTENT, VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID-20S AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON MERIT ATTENTION FROM A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT,
THOUGH WIND GUSTS COINCIDENT WITH THESE MIN RHS ONLY REACHING TO
AROUND 15 MPH PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARD
PRODUCTS. NONETHELESS, WE ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO EXERCISE CAUTION WITH
ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY CAUSE A SPARK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SE
GA/SC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN COOLING
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, DURING THE MID-DAY HOURS.
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BY THE TIME THIS LINE
REACHES OUR AREA, COVERAGE LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE - THOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MAY
KEEP COVERAGE ENTIRELY ISOLATED. AS A RESULT, EXPECT RAINFALL
TOTALS AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. WITH RAIN CHANCES
FORECAST TO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, SHOULD ALSO EXPECT DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AND
LIKELY WORSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF APRIL.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A BRIEF, BUT NOTABLE COOL DOWN TO OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF FROPA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGHS DIP BACK INTO THE 70S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL ALSO BE COMMON DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S BY MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF THE NEW MOON (YESTERDAY) AND PERIGEE (TOMORROW)
WILL BRING ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. TIDE LEVELS WILL
BE ELEVATED AGAIN WITH THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY AND THE DIRECTION OF THE POST-FRONTAL
WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL
DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW,
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW BY NOONTIME SUNDAY. THERE IS A
VERY LOW THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME. WINDS BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS, DECREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR
MARINE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEARSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH 20 KT GUSTS BECOMING MORE FREQUENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NNE BY SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD FROM 2-3 FT ON SUNDAY TO 3-8 FT BY DAWN MONDAY. A
PORTION OF THE MARINE ZONES MAY BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY, REMAINING INTO
THE MID-WEEK. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ALL BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 2-3 FT
BREAKERS, MODEST ONSHORE FLOW, AND INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH LUNAR PERIGEE/NEW MOON. AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A PINCHED GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND
EVENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 18:
KCHS: 92/1967
KSAV: 93/1967
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ150.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/SST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page