586
FXUS62 KCHS 211131
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS WEEK HIGHS WILL
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, NO RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE THIS
WEEKEND, AND EVEN THAT IS UNCERTAIN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING AS
LOW AS 20% WEST OF I-95. WHILE RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICAL, THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THEREFORE, NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID, WE
ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF BURNING AND HEED ANY
LOCAL BURN BANS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP ACROSS KCHS
AND KJZI AROUND THE ONSET OF TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN VEERING FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND OF THE FRONT. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY NOT DEVELOP
OVER KSAV UNTIL 16Z. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATES THAT A
WEAK SEA BREEZE IS TIMED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY INLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TURNING STEADY WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-3 FT THROUGH SAT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/NED
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