842
FXUS62 KCHS 221834
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
234 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UNDER MODEST RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
IN THE LOW-MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST (WARMEST ACROSS INLAND
GEORGIA). AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS SUBTLE RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE TURNS SFC FLOW
ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS
PERIOD AND MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS MODEST, SUGGESTING RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 20S WEST OF I-95 EACH AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SFC HEATING PROMOTES DEEP MIXING INTO DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES
ARE CONSIDERED CRITICAL, SFC WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO
AROUND 15 MPH, STRONGEST IN HIGHER RH LOCATIONS (NEAR THE COAST)
WHERE A MARINE LAYER/INFLUENCE OCCURS WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
EACH DAY. GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS AND LOW RH, FIRE DANGER WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN EACH AFTERNOON. IN FACT, RECENT/ONGOING
FIRES ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA COULD RESULT IN AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT H5 VORT ENERGY RIPPLING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY, HELPING FORCE A SFC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WEAK INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SEA BREEZE COULD SUPPORT FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PRECIP COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WITH FROPA, AND ALTHOUGH PRECIP DOESN'T LOOK
PARTICULARLY HEAVY, SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE UPWARDS TO 0.25-
0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS WITH A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LOCAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WHERE A
DAILY SEABREEZE DEVELOPS, THEN SHIFTS INLAND. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND FAVORING 15-20 KT
WINDS ON SATURDAY THAT TURN MORE OFFSHORE WITH FROPA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT
THROUGH LATE WEEK, THEN SLIGHTLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT NEAR FROPA LATE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BOTH WINDS/SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SCZ040-
042>045-147>152.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB
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