058
FXUS62 KCHS 231045
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
645 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) POOR AIR QUALITY WITH SMOKEY CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH
TODAY, POSSIBLY LONGER.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- 3) A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POOR AIR QUALITY WITH SMOKEY CONDITIONS TO LINGER
THROUGH TODAY, POSSIBLY LONGER.
THE SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES (SCDES) HAS
ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR ALL OF THE LOWCOUNTRY THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING.
INFRARED SATELLITE DETECTED TWO LARGE WILDFIRES OVER SOUTHERN GA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS MORNING, SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LITTLE TO NO ISSUES WITH LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION, SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS MAY
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA. THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE A MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE THIS MORNING.
HRRR SMOKE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE WILL
LINGER OR INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, CARRIED BY THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND THE SFC HIGH. AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON, SMOKE CONCENTRATION MAY INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, DEEP MIXING SHOULD AID IN KEEPING SMOKE LIMITED
TO PATCHY. SOME DEGREE OF SMOKE MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND
DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND
SPEED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALOFT, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST
(WARMEST ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA). DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH
RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 20S WEST OF I-95 EACH
AFTERNOON AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING PROMOTES DEEP MIXING INTO DRIER
AIR ALOFT. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES ARE CONSIDERED CRITICAL, SURFACE WINDS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGER GUSTS (AROUND 20 MPH) ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND ARE CORRELATED WITH HIGHER RH
VALUES. GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS AND LOW RH, FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY AND TOMORROW (FRIDAY).
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ON
SATURDAY, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE RAINFALL IS
DESPERATELY NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT
BUSTER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.25-0.5"
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LARGE WILDFIRES OVER SOUTHERN GA AND FL HAVE
GENERATED A LARGE PLUME OF SMOKE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HRRR
SMOKE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. NEAR SFC SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS MAY PEAK JUST AHEAD OF
THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE KCHS AND KSAV TAFS WILL
FEATURE VFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE BETWEEN 17-21Z. FOLLOWING THE
SEA BREEZE, SMOKE SHOULD DECREASE AS WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY WEAK, SSW WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN
THE WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST WITH THE FORMATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2-
3 FT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY,
TIMED TO PUSH ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE NNW, REMAINING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-3 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-
042>045-147>152.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/NED
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