363
FXUS62 KCHS 232114
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
514 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) POOR AIR QUALITY DUE TO SMOKE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
- 3) A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POOR AIR QUALITY DUE TO SMOKE THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY.
THE SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES (SCDES) HAS
ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR ALL OF THE LOWCOUNTRY THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE WILDFIRES OVER SOUTHERN GA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERED THIS SMOKE OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE THICKEST SMOKE APPEARED TO REMAIN ALOFT BECAUSE
THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THE SURFACE.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE IS HELPING TO DISSIPATE THE SMOKE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME DEGREE OF SMOKE MAY LINGER
INTO FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY EXPECTED FRIDAY.
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S, EXCEPT COOLER AT/NEAR THE BEACHES DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WEST OF
I-95, BUT WILL BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, OVERALL
WINDS WON'T BE STRONG. THOUGH, THEY COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND
15 MPH ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS AND THE
ONGOING DROUGHT, THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, HELPING TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THERE LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH COVERAGE LIKELY PEAKING IN THE EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE ANY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE BENEFICIAL, THIS EVENT WILL NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE ONGOING DROUGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY 0.25-0.50".
NBM INDICATES THE PROBABILITY FOR 24 HOUR RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN
0.50" IS ONLY 20-30%. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY, SO RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER LACK OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY BRINGS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
24/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 25/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. EXPECT S TO SW WINDS 10-15 KTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE FORMATION OF THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WINDS/SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE OF 15-20 KNOTS INTO EARLY MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AND
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. PARTS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY. ADJACENT RADAR SITES: KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX AND
KJGX.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-
042>045-147>152.
MARINE...NONE.
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