328
FXUS62 KCHS 232323
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
723 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) POOR AIR QUALITY DUE TO SMOKE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
- 3) A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POOR AIR QUALITY DUE TO SMOKE THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
SERVICES HAS COMMUNICATED THAT THE ALERT WILL NOT BE EXTENDED
INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE NO AIR QUALITY ALERTS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. REFER TO STATE AIR QUALITY AGENCIES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON AIR QUALITY.
EARLY EVENING GEOCOLOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE SMOKE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WHILE
MOST OF THE SMOKE IS ALOFT, THE SMELL OF SMOKE IS RATHER
WIDESPREAD WITH IMPACTS TO AIR QUALITY OCCURRING. FARTHER THE
SOUTH, SATELLITE SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE BLOW-
UP AT THE HIGHWAY 82 FIRE BURNING IN BRANTLEY COUNTY, GA. THE
SMOKE PLUME IS MOVING DUE NORTH AND HAS INFILTRATED PARTS OF THE
LONG COUNTY AND WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF TATTNALL, LIBERTY,
EVANS AND BRYAN COUNTIES SOON. WEBCAMS OUT OF JESUP ARE NOT TOO
BAD OVERALL AND THE KJES AWOS HAS YET TO REPORT ANY REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS; HOWEVER, THIS MAY CHANGE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP AND MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER BELOW 1000
FT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO HIT THE SMOKE COVERAGE A BIT
HARDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER PARTS OF LONG, LONG, TATTNALL AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES.
SOME DEGREE OF SMOKE MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
ONGOING FLOW PATTERN. THE SEA BREEZE MAY HELP CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT, BUT MOST OF THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN ALOFT AGAIN AS
MIXING HEIGHTS RISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY EXPECTED FRIDAY.
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S, EXCEPT COOLER AT/NEAR THE BEACHES DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WEST OF
I-95, BUT WILL BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, OVERALL
WINDS WON'T BE STRONG. THOUGH, THEY COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND
15 MPH ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS AND THE
ONGOING DROUGHT, THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, HELPING TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP,
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ANY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY
BE BENEFICIAL, THIS EVENT WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE
ONGOING DROUGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY 0.25-0.50". NBM INDICATES THE
PROBABILITY FOR 24 HOUR RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN 0.50" IS ONLY
20-30%. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WEAK WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY, SO RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER LACK
OF MODEL CONSISTENCY BRINGS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
24/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 25/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK. EXPECT S TO SW WINDS 10-15 KTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE FORMATION OF THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS 2-3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE OF 15-20
KNOTS INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE THEREAFTER AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AND WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. PARTS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY. ADJACENT RADAR SITES: KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX AND
KJGX.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-
042>045-147>152.
MARINE...NONE.
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