324
FXUS62 KCHS 240636
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
236 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY INLAND
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INLAND TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN
RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN VERY DEEP MIXING INLAND OF
THE SEA BREEZE. THE MIXING SHOULD KEEP INLAND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50, RESULTING IN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. THE LOW
RH VALUES COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO WORSENING FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY INLAND OF I-95. IN
ADDITION, HRRR SMOKE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SMOKE SOURCED FROM
ONGOING GA WILDFIRES MAY DRIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER, DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP SFC CONCENTRATIONS LIMITED, PATCHY
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
ACROSS SE GA AND SC, I AM HESITANT TO ADD POPS TO THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, BOTH THE 0Z HREF AND REFS BOTH INDICATE 6 HR PROBABILITIES
OF 0.01 INCHES BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SBCAPE WILL PEAK AROUND 500 J/KG WITH LITTLE
TO NO CIN OVER THE SC LOWCOUNTRY, SOME CIN PRESENT ACROSS SE GA.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TIMES THE H5 SHORTWAVE TO RIPPLE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER FORCING, WEAK INSTABILITY, AND A PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE, IT
APPEARS THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND SC
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE SCHC POPS DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TOWARDS
SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
A SHARP, POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH
PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES BY SATURDAY EVENING,
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY
SLOWS WHILE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SLOWER PROGRESSION
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT LOOKS TO INCREASE TO >1200 J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IF CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO
MIDDAY SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALLEVIATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE
NBM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES, WITH ONLY A 15-30% PROBABILITY OF 24-HOUR
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 0.50 INCHES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
6Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH INLAND AT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER
PACE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 17-19Z, TURNING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WITH A TEMPORARY SURGE.
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND 5 KTS AROUND 0Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK, SOUTH
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE WINDS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST WITH THE FORMATION OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3
FT BETWEEN 20-60 NM.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE OF 15-
20 KT WINDS INTO EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH GUSTS NEARING 25 KT AND SEAS NEARING 6 FT,
MAINLY BEYOND 40-60 NM. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. PARTS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY. ADJACENT RADAR SITES: KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX AND
KJGX.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/NED
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