248
FXUS62 KCHS 241829
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
229 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY INLAND
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INLAND TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, STILL EXPECT
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO 50 INLAND, RESULTING IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL, THESE
VALUES COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY PROMOTE WORSENING FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY INLAND OF I-95. THUS, WE
ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO EXERCISE CAUTION WITH ANY ACTIVITY HEAT MAY CAUSE
A SPARK AND TO HEED ANY LOCAL BURN BANS.
HIGH-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION
MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ADVANCING SEA BREEZE. THAT
BEING SAID, SOUNDING PROFILES STILL REMAIN QUITE DRY EVEN WITH
SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG - SO RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY ONLY
EQUATE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF ANY. GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
LOCATION REMAINS LOW, HAVE OPTED TO ONLY CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NEAR SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PASSING
TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY. IT'LL MOVE SOUTHEAST, THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE AND TO OUR
SOUTH BY LATER SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE A DECENT PLUME OF
MOISTURE. PWATS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 1.5" SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
CHS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED COVERAGE
SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED BOTH DAYS, SO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS, EVEN THOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALLEVIATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WERE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY LOWER, SO STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 0.1-0.25", WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE NBM NOW HAS A 50% PROBABILITY OR LOWER
OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDING 0.25".
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
SLIDE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE COMING HOURS, TURNING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A TEMPORARY SURGE. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND
5 KTS AROUND 0Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING OCCASIONAL IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK, SOUTH
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE WINDS MAY OCCUR
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES ONSHORE. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 FT
BETWEEN 20-60 NM.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY. IT'LL MOVE
SOUTHEAST, THROUGH OUR WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE AND TO OUR SOUTH BY LATER SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A BRIEF SURGE OF NE WINDS INTO EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS TREND LOWER MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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