497
FXUS62 KCHS 030206
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1006 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIDE LEVELS FELL SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA, SO THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED. KEY MESSAGES WERE UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RISING EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO BE LOWER
80S TO LOWER 90S. OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER DURING THE DAY, THURSDAY COULD BE ANOTHER WARM
DAY IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S, THOUGH TIMING OF THE TROUGH WHICH
INFLUENCES THE COLD FRONT REMAINS DISPUTED AMONGST THE MODELS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
00Z TAFS: MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INITIALLY, BEFORE LIFTING
AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY AROUND 03Z. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO BE AT KSAV WHERE
MVFR VSBYS WERE INCLUDED. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: NO CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SITUATED OFFSHORE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 22-23 KT POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW RACES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE. SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS SURGES INTO THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING THE RETURN OF WEAKER WINDS AND
CALM SEAS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO BECOME OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST DOES GET PINCHED A BIT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO SOME MARGINALLY BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. NBM CURRENTLY HAS
40-70% CHANCES FOR REACHING 25 KNOT GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS, DROPPING TO BELOW 40% ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA
WATERS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/DENNIS
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