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FXUS62 KCHS 031129
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
WEEK, EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT
A ZONAL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MODEST RIDGING PATTERN MID-
WEEK, AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE MID-UPPER 80S INLAND TO AROUND
90 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY. THE
POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE FAVORS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVING FRONT,
HELPING ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS ~2.0 INCHES) ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ADVANCES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION AND FORCES THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL PLAY A KEY FACTOR IN THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO AND DURING FROPA ON THURSDAY, SOME GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN THE LOCAL AREA WHILE A
FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF A H25 JET PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST INLAND.
SHOULD PEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR COINCIDE WITH TIMING OF FROPA, THE
RISK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
IF OCCURRING NEAR PEAK DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM/FRONT APPEARS TO BE ON THE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
AND THE RISK FOR FLOODING LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
MARINE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS OR 6 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF EVENTUALLY NEEDING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB/JRL
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