580
FXUS62 KCHS 032331
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT, DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
TODAY, AND THEN WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND AND CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
BY WEDNESDAY. ALOFT, THE ZONAL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS A MID-LVL
TROUGH SWOOPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT AND THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SOME OF
THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING MODEST INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR COULD BE IN-PLACE. THIS SET-
UP WILL LIKELY YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ESP. IF PEAK INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH
THE TIMING OF FROPA. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS TO BE THE
MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY. SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE MID-LVL
TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE PROGRESSIVE SIDE, INDICATING
THAT THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING OVER A CERTAIN
AREA WILL BE RATHER LOW. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
00Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TRANQUIL SIDE. EXPECT
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SWITCH OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT AS
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL TAPERS BACK OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN THE EARLY THIS WEEK, EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO MARGINALLY BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY (AS THE FRONT INCHES CLOSER), WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZIER WITH MODELS SUPPORTING GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS.
THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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