936
FXUS62 KCHS 041119
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES,
FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BECOMES
POSITIONED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
ADVECT WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
WEDNESDAY. A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTING PWATS ~2.0
INCHES PRIOR TO COLD FROPA. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT/MOISTURE ALONG
WITH AN UPTICK IN WIND FIELDS, INCLUDING THE PRESENCE OF H5 VORT
ENERGY AND A FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF A H25 JET PASSING INLAND,
SUPPORTS MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOCALLY AS A MID-UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES ACROSS GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND FORCES THE
SFC FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL BE KEY IN THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING PRIOR
TO AND DURING FROPA LOCALLY, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THE FRONT ARRIVE PRIOR TO THURSDAY
EVENING.
REGARDLESS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING PRECIP ACTIVITY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM/FRONT APPEARS TO BE ON THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO UNDER AN INCH AND
MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR FLOODING LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN GREATER PRECIP ACTIVITY THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IF
THE FRONT IS DELAYED.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT WIND GUSTS
AND 6 FT SEAS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE AND GA
OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB/JRL
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