376
FXUS62 KCHS 041702
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS HAVE BEEN CHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY IS LOW. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WILL BUILDING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE DEGREE OF
LIFT AND RESULTING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY
DRIVEN BY HOW STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE. THIS
IS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND IS A KEY
FACTOR ON HOW FAR THE SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS BEFORE
STALLING. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE SHOWING A
NUMBER OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES WITH THE MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES
FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE, DRIER SOLUTION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS A
BIT WEAKER, SLOWER WITH THE MAJORITY OF ITS MEMBERS HIGHLIGHTING
WETTER SCENARIOS WITH THE FRONT STALLED CLOSER TO OR DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HOPEFULLY, THE
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS WILL BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A
MORE CONSISTENT, CONSOLIDATED SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS ADDITIONAL DATA AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS ARE INGESTED.
GUIDANCE IS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION THE SURFACE
PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND THE HIGHEST POPS (50-80%) WERE
MAINTAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE 04/13Z NBM. ELEVATED POPS WERE
ALSO MAINTAINED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR
THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO ONGOING UNCERTAINTY.
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS, POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT, ARE LIKELY TO BE
MADE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
04/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 05/12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF 25 KT WINDS AND 6 FT
SEAS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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