907
FXUS62 KCHS 060820
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK
THURSDAY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- 2) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH A STALLED
FRONT NEARBY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WELL IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION, DRIVEN BY A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DEEP
MOISTURE (PWATS ~2.0 INCHES AND SFC DEWPTS IN LOWER 70S) ARRIVING
ACROSS THE REGION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS WARM-SECTORED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE MAIN
ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING TIMING
OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LVL
JETTING WHILE A STRONG H25 JET CORE PASSING INLAND AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING LEVELS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT SUPPORTIVE OF NEARLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LOCALLY AND PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR ONGOING UPSTREAM AND/OR
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR DURING MORNING HOURS, WHICH WOULD
LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOME DEGREE PRIOR TO TYPICAL PEAK HEATING HOURS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE AN AXIS OF
MODEST INSTABILITY (SBCAPE ~1500 J/KG) DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO COASTAL PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA,
WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOW
FOR SFC TEMPS TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME WARMEST NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 90S BEFORE THE ONSET
ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS 2.0 INCHES/SFC DEWPTS LOWER
70S) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 50-60 KT SUPPORTS A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOCALLY ON THURSDAY, DEPENDENT ON SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY
REALIZED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE TIMING OF COLD FROPA, WHICH
SHOULD OCCUR STARTING AROUND THURSDAY EVENING. MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES INDICATED BY SOUNDINGS AND H85-H5 CROSSOVER WINDS
ALONG WITH LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM SUPPORT PRIMARILY
A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND CONCERN FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WITHIN CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINEAR SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS AN NON-ZERO RISK FOR A TORNADO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SHOULD AMPLE INSTABILITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE PROMOTING A NEAR SFC BACKING WIND COMPONENT. THE BULK
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, BUT CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT,
ESPECIALLY IF THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARRIVING COLD FRONT SLOWS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONT NEARBY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW POST COLD FROPA THIS WEEKEND.
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SOME DRYING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY,
WHILE PRECIP ACTIVITY HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS INTO SATURDAY AS
H5 VORT ENERGY RIPPLES ACROSS A STALLING FRONT THAT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY IN REGARDS TO
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY DURING THE WEEKEND, AND COULD
POTENTIALLY SET UP AN UNSETTLED PRECIP PATTERN UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS
LOW THIS WEEKEND, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20-25 KT ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WINDS COULD CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS IN THE 00Z-06Z THURSDAY AS
WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AND/OR OCCURRING WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WE'RE STILL SHOWING A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF 25 KT WIND GUSTS LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT SEEMS TOO MARGINAL TO
PULL THE TRIGGER ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES JUST YET.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB/JRL
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