854
FXUS62 KCHS 071813
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
213 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND BY TOMORROW MORNING WILL
BE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT COMPLETELY GONE,
THE THREAT IS MUCH LOWER THAN FORECAST EARLIER. DUE TO WIDESPREAD
THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION, FEW AREAS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SEE
SUNSHINE. WITHOUT THE SUNSHINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO
STABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA (SOUTH OF I-16) WHICH HAVE A LOW END
RISK TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER, WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST THE
MAIN THREAT. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE REGION CURRENTLY HAS
<500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE.
KCLX RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
ALONG JENKINS/SCREVEN/ALLENDALE COUNTIES. CAMS THIS MORNING ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS LINE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES I- 95, LIKELY ONLY BEING ISOLATED SHOWERS BY THE TIME
IT ARRIVES AT THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER, A STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE GA, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY.
LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
AS THE ACTUAL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD ON FRIDAY, THEN THE FRONT
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. PWATS APPROACHING 1.75-2.0" ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. POCKETS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. TOTAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75"-1.5", THOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" IF A STRONG SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLS THROUGH. GIVEN THE PROLONGED EVENT TO REACH
THOSE RAINFALL TOTALS, RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING JENKINS/SCREVEN/ALLENDALE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AS OF 2 PM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, HOWEVER SOME IMPACTS MAY STILL OCCUR AT
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL 3 TAF SITES, WITH
SHRA AT KCHS/KJZI AND TSRA AT KSAV. ANOTHER LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT,
HOWEVER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL SO NO DIRECT MENTION OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIP HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAF. SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS/KJZI BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. IONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE
EVENING AND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A STALLED FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS
AND A SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6
PM. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY - MONDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION BRINGING A ROUND OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, THOUGH THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING THE BRIEF RETURN OF WEAKER
WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO SWING
AROUND TO BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST DOES GET PINCHED A
BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO SOME MARGINALLY BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. NBM
CURRENTLY HAS 50-70% CHANCES FOR REACHING 25 KNOT GUSTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS, DROPPING TO BELOW 40% ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
COUPLED WITH BUILDING 2-4 FT SWELL SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES FOR TODAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ340.
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