243
FXUS62 KCHS 072344
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD ON FRIDAY, THEN THE FRONT
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. PWATS APPROACHING 1.75-2.0" ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. POCKETS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. TOTAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75"-1.5", THOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" IF A STRONG SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLS THROUGH. GIVEN THE PROLONGED EVENT TO REACH
THOSE RAINFALL TOTALS, RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
0Z TAFS: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY OVER KCHS, THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT. THE TAFS WILL FEATURE VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER A SEA BREEZE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A STALLED FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS
AND A SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6
PM. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY - MONDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION BRINGING A ROUND OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, THOUGH THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING THE BRIEF RETURN OF WEAKER
WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO SWING
AROUND TO BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST DOES GET PINCHED A
BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO SOME MARGINALLY BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. NBM
CURRENTLY HAS 50-70% CHANCES FOR REACHING 25 KNOT GUSTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS, DROPPING TO BELOW 40% ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
COUPLED WITH BUILDING 2-4 FT SWELL SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES FOR TODAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NED
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