993
FXUS62 KCHS 080623
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
223 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF A STALLING
FRONT OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH TODAY, SETTING UP DRY/COOLER
CONDITIONS WITHIN A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT, POSSIBLY
STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR DEEP MOISTURE RETURN (PWATS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES) ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE RETURN, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ACROSS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND ONGOING SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, BUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH
AFTERNOON. GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WHEN WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS MORE NOTABLE
H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASED
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD EXCEED THESE
AMOUNTS SHOULD SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE
BOUNDARY/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FOR LONGER DURATIONS LATE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PROLONGED EVENT TO REACH THESE RAINFALL TOTALS,
PRECIP RATES ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVING AT CHS/JZI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-08Z EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST
OBS, CIGS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SO HAVE MAINTAINED
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A STALLED FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT,
CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AND EASE, WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE. A FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS WEEKEND, GENERALLY BRINGING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING A SURGE OF WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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