631
FXUS62 KCHS 081131
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 1. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS
BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF A STALLING
FRONT OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH TODAY, SETTING UP DRY/COOLER
CONDITIONS WITHIN A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT, POSSIBLY
STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR DEEP MOISTURE RETURN (PWATS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES) ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE RETURN, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ACROSS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOCALLY, BUT A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WHEN WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS MORE
NOTABLE H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 0.75 TO 1.75 INCHES, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD EXCEED THESE
AMOUNTS SHOULD SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE
BOUNDARY/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FOR LONGER DURATIONS LATE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PROLONGED EVENT TO REACH THESE RAINFALL TOTALS,
PRECIP RATES ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING THREAT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT, STARTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IMPACTING
THE SAV TERMINAL IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME, THEN SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND IMPACTING THE CHS/JZI TERMINALS
STARTING AROUND 10Z SATURDAY. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED WITH
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DURING THESE NOTED TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A STALLED FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT,
CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AND EASE, WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE. A FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS WEEKEND, GENERALLY BRINGING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING A SURGE OF WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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