753
FXUS62 KCHS 090712
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
312 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY.
SATURDAY: A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER,
TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY,
AS SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND/OR WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SBCAPE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST, GENERALLY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG, WITH
LOWER INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INLAND AREAS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AT 40-50 KT, WHILE THE STEEPEST LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AROUND 6-7 DEG C/KM, ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. AS A RESULT, THIS AREA HAS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE. LONG, NARROW FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT THE LARGE
HAIL THREAT, BUT THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
SUNDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD.
THOUGH, MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE SOME VORTICITY PASSING TO
OUR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,
A STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN THE MORNING.
IT'LL TRY TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY, PROBABLY DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE
AROUND THE FRONT, WITH PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.8" ACROSS OUR AREA.
THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY. ALL OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-16, UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING. THIS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SEVERAL FACTORS COMING TOGETHER
SIMULTANEOUSLY.
MONDAY: A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN THE
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING EASTWARD WITH IT,
POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO OUR AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL BE USHERED
INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT PWATS COULD
MAKE A RUN FOR 2", WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THE COMBINATION
OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL GENERATE A SMALL WINDOW
OF DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE SPC
FORECAST FOR OUR AREA SHOWS. AFTER THE CONVECTION, CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
06Z TAFS: ONGOING LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MCS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN
DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AS SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION COULD WEAKEN OR REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA BEFORE ARRIVAL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHERE HIGHER
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS
A RESULT, KSAV HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING IMPACTS
FROM STRONGER STORMS SHOULD CONVECTION DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. THEN, WINDS MAY BE GUSTY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CALM SEAS, ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED MARINE: A FRONT IS FORECASTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR
AREA ON SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY, BRINGING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS THAT
SHOULD LAST INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LIKEWISE, WE'LL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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