741
FXUS62 KCHS 091114
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY.
SATURDAY: A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER,
TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY,
AS SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND/OR WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SBCAPE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST, GENERALLY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG, WITH
LOWER INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INLAND AREAS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AT 40-50 KT, WHILE THE STEEPEST LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AROUND 6-7 DEG C/KM, ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. AS A RESULT, THIS AREA HAS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE. LONG, NARROW FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT THE LARGE
HAIL THREAT, BUT THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
SUNDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD.
THOUGH, MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE SOME VORTICITY PASSING TO
OUR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,
A STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN THE MORNING.
IT'LL TRY TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY, PROBABLY DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE
AROUND THE FRONT, WITH PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.8" ACROSS OUR AREA.
THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY. ALL OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-16, UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO PRECIPITATION
LOADING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SEVERAL FACTORS COMING
TOGETHER SIMULTANEOUSLY.
MONDAY: A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN THE
MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING EASTWARD WITH IT,
POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO OUR AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL BE USHERED
INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT PWATS COULD
MAKE A RUN FOR 2", WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THE COMBINATION
OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL GENERATE A SMALL WINDOW
OF DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE SPC
FORECAST FOR OUR AREA SHOWS. AFTER THE CONVECTION, CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
12Z TAFS: A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MCS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT TERMINAL
IMPACTS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTION COULD WEAKEN UPON ARRIVAL OR REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS A RESULT, KSAV HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
OF SEEING IMPACTS FROM STRONGER STORMS SHOULD CONVECTION
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME MENTION OF
DIRECT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT, CONSIDERING OUR LOW
CONFIDENCE. LATE MORNING, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND
HOVER AROUND MVFR LEVELS, LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM STORMS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERING CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK
LIKELY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. THEN, WINDS MAY BE GUSTY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CALM SEAS, ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED MARINE: A FRONT IS FORECASTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR
AREA ON SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY, BRINGING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS THAT
SHOULD LAST INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LIKEWISE, WE'LL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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