197
FXUS62 KCHS 100659
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN WILL FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, MOVING
OFFSHORE A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
MINIMAL TODAY, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF INCH LIKELY. A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND MEAGER AT BEST, THUS NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
ON MONDAY THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER PLAINS IN THE MORNING. IT'LL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH MODELS INDICATING IT MAY NOT PASS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING, AND
APPROACHING OUR AREA. IT SHOULD MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL BE USHERED INTO OUR AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS SHOULD PEAK ~1.8", WHICH IS 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER NAEFS AND ABOVE THE 90%
MARK FOR CHS PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL GENERATE CONVECTION STARTING LATE IN THE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING TO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR, AS INDICATED BY THE LONGER RANGE CAMS. SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE
AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE SETUP. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
IN THE LATE MORNING AND THEN FURTHER INLAND AS WE GET INTO THE
AFTERNOON. COLLIDING AND INTERACTING BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE
SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME HAIL. THOUGH, THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SPEED TO LIMIT
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LOWER DURING
THE EVENING. THOUGH, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF OUR AREA INTO TUESDAY OR IF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. WE HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED ANOTHER LOOK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
10/06Z TAF DISCUSSION: PERIODS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT IN TERMS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER POCKETS OF LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE MEANDERING ABOUT THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK.
MODELS SHOWS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING CEILINGS, WITH SOUNDINGS AND
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE FAVORING LOW PROBABILITIES OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
(LESS THAN 30% FOR CIGS < 3000 FT), WHEREAS MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF AT LEAST MVFR AND EVEN PERIODIC IFR/LIFR
CIGS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE STRATUS LAYER BEHAVES ONCE
RAIN COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE AND LIKELY AMEND FROM THERE.
CONFIDENCE OVERALL REMAINS LOW, BUT THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS AT KSAV, SO THOSE HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE
LATEST TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING
AND RETURN TO VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR RETURNS LATER TUESDAY AND WILL
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING, THEN QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A SURGE OF WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST THE INNER WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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