277
FXUS62 KCHS 111129
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF. RECENT
TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
BE DECREASING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
A SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL ALLOW THE SUNSHINE TO AID IN RATHER QUICK
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MLCAPE COULD PEAK BETWEEN 1100-1400 J/KG IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 600-900
J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA AS THIS IS WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS GREATEST,
ALTHOUGH A NON- ZERO RISK WILL STILL EXIST ELSEWHERE.
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. DCAPE VALUES THIS MORNING WILL NEAR 900 J/KG,
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. AS A
RESULT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE DOWNDRAFT
ENVIRONMENT. THAT BEING SAID, THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE HRRR IS
UNIMPRESSIVE, ONLY DEPICTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN A
ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING BETWEEN 5-9 PM ACROSS THE
LOW COUNTRY. OTHER CAMS HAVE SHOWN A SIMILAR TREND, SHOWING THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE INITIAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO INITIATE AS EARLY
AS 1 PM. THERE ARE STILL SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING
MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FROM THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA SOUTH TO BEAUFORT, AND INTO SAVANNAH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT TODAY, HOWEVER MOST
MODELS ARE QUICK TO END CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
8-10 PM TONIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
11/12Z TAF DISCUSSION: A MIX OF GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS
BEEN REPORTED AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
LIFT BY 12Z. THE RISK FOR TSTM IMPACTS WILL INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
AND A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THERE
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT KCHS AND KJZI WILL SEE DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM TSRA. HOWEVER, PROB30 HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AT KSAV
DUE TO LESSER CONFIDENCE, AS VARIOUS CAMS SHOW CONVECTION TO BE
GREATER IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE SC AND ONLY ISOLATED ACROSS SE
GA. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 00-03Z TUESDAY WILL BRING
ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CEILINGS COULD LOWER AGAIN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH SIGNALS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THE TIMING IS TOO FAR
OUT TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES, WHICH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES EXCEPT FOR
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
EXTENDED MARINE: A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF OUR COAST TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE CAUSING GUSTY NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. THEREFORE, WE HAVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE DURING
THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW 25 KT IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR, SO WE DON'T HAVE AN ADVISORY THERE. WINDS WILL
EASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING AS
WELL. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD EXPIRE WITHIN 20 NM TUESDAY
EVENING, AND FOR THE GA OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH LATER TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY THURSDAY. THOUGH, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL OF
OUR BEACHES ON TUESDAY. THOUGH, INTERNAL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS
A HIGH RISK FOR OUR GA BEACHES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED,
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS AND SEAS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THERE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ360-
362-364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ384.
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