124
FXUS62 KCHS 120306
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1106 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS REMOVED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST ON TUESDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT, TURNING FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP A STRONG
LONGSHORE CURRENT WITH BUILDING BREAKER HEIGHTS. LOCAL CALCULATOR
SUPPORTS A HIGH RISK FOR THE GA BEACHES WITH GREATER ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SC COAST MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00Z TAFS: SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DIVE ACROSS THE REGION,
CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY BREEZY IN IT'S
WAKE. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON,
COVERAGE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. SO,
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COMING HOURS,
EXPECT THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO WANE. THAT BEING
SAID, DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA,
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR KSAV FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR WIND DIRECTION TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK IN AREAS
ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS WILL START AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING
WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SEAS
PEAKING TUESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH LATER
TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY. THOUGH, WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
RIP CURRENTS: SEE KEY MESSAGE #1 ADDRESSING THE HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GA BEACHES ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL YIELD A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL OF OUR SC BEACHES ON
TUESDAY. THOUGH, INTERNAL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A HIGH
RISK FOR OUR NORTHERN SC BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ360.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ362-364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ384.
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