640
FXUS62 KCHS 122127
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
527 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK KEY MESSAGE WAS REMOVED.
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 13/00Z TAFS.
AN EQUIPMENT SECTION WAS ADDED TO ADDRESS KCLX MAINTENANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND/OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND/OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS A MID-LVL TROUGH SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES) COMBINED WITH WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY YIELD ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL (IF ANY) AND WILL PUSH DRIER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST NOTES RH
VALUES FALLING INTO CRITICAL VALUES (25-30%) AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE
ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE
BREEZY ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
13/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI: VFR THROUGH 14/00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS NEAR
MVFR LEVELS COULD APPROACH KJZI OVERNIGHT, BUT DATA SUPPORT
KEEPING THESE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
KSAV: LIGHT RAINS WILL LINGER ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THANKFULLY, NO MEANINGFUL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DRIER
AIR KEEPING LIKELY KEEPING VSBYS AT THE TERMINAL VFR IN THE
RAIN. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IF CIGS WILL BUILD DOWN TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH SUGGEST CIGS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH, BUT NOT DROP, INTO MVFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE IS A RISK OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE DROPPED ENOUGH IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TO ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THERE AT 6 PM.
THROUGH TONIGHT: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS BREEZY EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 5 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS (0-20 NM) AND 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS (20-60 NM). MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE SCA FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL END AT 6PM, AND
THEN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER VERY MINIMAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS. THE REMAINING SCA ACROSS THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SOME 6 FOOTERS LINGER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE
WATERS ON THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THEREAFTER.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WEDNESDAY AT ALL BEACHES AS THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TO GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL YIELD AN INCREASED
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS. COMPARING THE PARAMETERS TO A COUPLE
DIFFERENT MODELS AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OBSERVATIONS SEEN
FROM TODAY, THE RISK FOR THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES
WAS INCREASED FROM A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR TOMORROW. THE
MODERATE RISK FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES WAS MAINTAINED,
HOWEVER THE RCMOS WAS SUGGESTING SOME INDICATION THAT THERE
COULD BE A NEED FOR A HIGH RISK TOMORROW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
RE-EVALUATED OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THURSDAY.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE.
USERS OF KCLX RADAR DATA ARE URGED TO USE ADJACENT WSR-88D SITES
WHICH ALSO COVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE INCLUDE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ217-
219-239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ360-362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ384.
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