858
FXUS62 KCHS 131727
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
127 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 18Z TAFS.
REMOVED EQUIPMENT SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND/OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND/OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY,
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIPPLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION, PUSHING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS SE GA WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. AREAS ACROSS
SE SC WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY TODAY, ALTHOUGH A STRAY ISOLATED SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFF OUR COAST IN THE MORNING, WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE NEAR CRITICAL RANGE
(25-30%) AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HOWEVER, WINDS WON'T BE
BREEZY ENOUGH TO INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FRIDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH DRY CONDITIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, NEAR
CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 18Z TAFS, KCLX DETECTED A SLOW MOVING SEA BREEZE
BETWEEN KJZI AND KCHS, DRIFTING INLAND. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE,
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN NEAR
THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, HIGHLIGHTED IN THE KJZI
TAF. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING ALONG WITH CLEARING
SKY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 6FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THEREFORE, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELED.
AN SCA REMAINS IN THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS FOR 6FT
SEAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WILL FEATURE NE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 4 TO 5
FT.
EXTENDED MARINE: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE HIGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: THURSDAY: THERE WILL REMAIN A 2-3 FT SWELL AROUND 7
SECONDS AT OUR BEACHES. INTERNAL CALCULATIONS POINT TO A LOW RISK AT
ALL OF OUR BEACHES. HOWEVER, RCMOS POINTS TO A BORDERLINE
LOW/MODERATE RISK ALONG OUR SC BEACHES AND A MODERATE RISK ALONG OUR
GA BEACHES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SINCE TYBEE, GA IS PRONE TO
RIP CURRENTS, WE UPPED THE RISK TO MODERATE FOR OUR GA BEACHES, BUT
LEFT THE RISK LOW FOR OUR SC BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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