220
FXUS62 KCHS 142303
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
INCREASES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EVENING HIGH TIDES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RISING DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON
(ON SATURDAY). IN FACT, THE CHARLESTON ASTRONOMICAL TIDE ALONE
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK JUST ABOVE 6.7 FT MLLW WITH THE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES. THEREFORE, EVEN SMALL POSITIVE
ANOMALIES COULD LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR CHARLESTON
AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES BOTH OF THOSE EVENINGS. THIS WILL
ALL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE WIND DIRECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL, EACH HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
A BRIEF NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWING A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SLIGHTLY INCREASING TIDAL RANGES WITH THE
UPCOMING NEW MOON PLUS MODEST ONSHORE SWELL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE RISK FRIDAY FOR GA COAST AND MODERATE RISK FOR ALL
SC/GA BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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