545
FXUS62 KCHS 151407
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON AND
COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES FOR THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. DEW POINTS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S,
RESULTING IN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20% ACROSS FAR INLAND
LOCATIONS AND CLOSER TO 35% ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EVEN
THOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AT OR CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES WIND
SPEEDS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. THEREFORE, NO
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE 85-90F RANGE AWAY FROM THE BEACHES MOST DAYS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN NO RELIEF TO THE
EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOWARD THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EVENING HIGH TIDES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RISING DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON
ON SATURDAY, WITH THE CHARLESTON ASTRONOMICAL TIDE EXPECTED TO
PEAK JUST ABOVE 6.7 FT MLLW WITH THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
HIGH TIDES. THEREFORE, EVEN SMALL POSITIVE ANOMALIES COULD LEAD
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON
COUNTIES BOTH OF THOSE EVENINGS. THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING IS
FORECAST TO REACH 7.3 FT MLLW AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. OVERALL, EACH HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
WINDS REMAINED ELEVATED THIS MORNING BUT HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH. BY THE AFTERNOON, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE
ONSHORE AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO THE 10 KT RANGE. THE ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: SLIGHTLY INCREASING TIDAL RANGES WITH THE
UPCOMING NEW MOON PLUS MODEST ONSHORE SWELL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE RISK FRIDAY FOR GA COAST AND MODERATE RISK FOR ALL
SC/GA BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ149-150.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page