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FXUS62 KCHS 151819
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
219 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL, A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AT THE SURFACE.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE LOW 80S, INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S
BY SUNDAY. UPPER 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH MOST OF
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GA.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE. A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES INCLUDING THE NEW MOON (5/16) AND THE
PERIGEE (5/17) WILL DRIVE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL MOSTLY FAVOR ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS MODESTLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER TIDE LEVELS AS WELL.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL COME AT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE, WITH MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL AT FORT
PULASKI. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPCOMING
EVENING HIGH TIDE FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES.
THE FORECAST THEN ADVERTISES PEAK EVENING HIGH TIDES AROUND
7.2-7.3 FT MLLW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS THEN BEGIN TO FALL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WILL DIMINISH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
OVERALL, QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EACH
DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF INFLUENCES FROM THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON CYCLE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT AT ALL BEACHES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ149-150.
MARINE...NONE.
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