434
FXUS62 KCHS 160925
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
525 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. THERE
COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION, MAINLY SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BUT COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE
IN THE 85-90F RANGE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS STILL SPREAD
BETWEEN MODELS, CONSENSUS INDICATES SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING
THE REGION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND POSSIBLY
STALLING NEARBY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES INCLUDING THE NEW MOON (5/16) AND THE
PERIGEE (5/17) WILL DRIVE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL MOSTLY FAVOR ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS MODESTLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER TIDE LEVELS AS WELL.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE AT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE, WITH MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL AT FORT
PULASKI. THE FORECAST ADVERTISES PEAK EVENING HIGH TIDES AROUND
7.2-7.3 FT MLLW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS. ADDITIONAL
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS THEN
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL DIMINISH.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
16/12Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NO CONCERNS. A WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH COULD
BACK WINDS MORE EASTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK; OTHERWISE, A
SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT (EXCEPT 10-15 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON) WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EACH
DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF INFLUENCES FROM THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON CYCLE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT AT ALL BEACHES TODAY AND
SUNDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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