547
FXUS62 KCHS 170552
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY AND MONDAY.
- 2) MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- 3) INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY AND MONDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES INCLUDING THE NEW MOON (5/16) AND THE
PERIGEE (5/17) ALONG WITH A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL HELP DRIVE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE AT THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR TIDE GAGE, WITH MUCH LOWER POTENTIAL AT FORT PULASKI.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS THEN BEGIN TO FALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL DIMINISH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TODAY
AS UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ALOFT. MOST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR IN
SHOWING A PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 850 HPA
THETA-E AXIS SETTING UP FROM EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS AXIS OF INCREASED THETA-E COUPLED WITH BUILDING
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION, CENTERED MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. SOME ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT INTO THE FAR INTERIOR
GEORGIA ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A METTER-
CLAXTON-LUDOCIWI LINE. POPS 20-30% WERE HIGHLIGHTED FOR THESE
AREAS (HIGHEST OVER WESTERN TATTNALL COUNTY) WITH RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WHILE RIDGING LARGELY PREVAILS ALOFT. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED, WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF NORMAL EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MILD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR LATE WEEK.
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE,
ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD BIT OF INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
TOWARDS/INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE AREA, POSSIBLY STALLING NEARBY, FAVORING HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONGER, AND BETTER FORCING REMAINS
FURTHER TO THE WEST, OUR CURRENT POP SCHEME COULD BE TOO HIGH.
ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THE PROBABILITY FOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL
OF >1" ENDING SATURDAY EVENING OF ONLY 10-40% (HIGHEST INLAND),
SO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
17/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 18/06Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NO CONCERNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE KEEPING A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKELY SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
IN PLACE. SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT (EXCEPT 10-15 KT IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON) WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EACH
DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF INFLUENCES FROM THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON CYCLE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT AT ALL SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES TODAY AND MONDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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