262
FXUS62 KCHS 180234
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY AND MONDAY.
- 2) MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON MONDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MOON (5/16) AND
LUNAR PERIGEE (5/17) ALONG WITH A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS EARLY THIS WEEK, LEADING
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
AND POTENTIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. THE LATEST
FORECAST ADVERTISES A PEAK HIGH TIDE AROUND 7.0 TO 7.2 FT MLLW
MONDAY EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COLLETON
AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES COULD BE NEEDED MONDAY EVENING.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS THEN BEGIN TO FALL AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL DIMINISH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR LATE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WHILE RIDGING LARGELY PREVAILS ALOFT. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED, WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA, BUT WILL COMPETE WITH THE DEEP
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE, WHICH COULD DEFLECT THE BETTER FORCING NORTH
OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA,
WITH ITS EVENTUAL PROGRESSION LIKELY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE. OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS (THU-
SAT), WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER, THE
FRONT AND BETTER FORCING COULD REMAIN FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH,
RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATES THE PROBABILITY FOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL OF >1"
ENDING SATURDAY EVENING OF ONLY 10-40% (HIGHEST INLAND), SO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 0Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS (14-17 KT) WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT, RESULTING
IN A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. IN GENERAL, WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT ACROSS MOST WATERS, ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND CHARLESTON
HARBOR IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY SEA BREEZE ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON
(~15 KT). SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT, LARGEST BEYOND 20 NM
FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EACH
DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF INFLUENCES FROM THE NEW MOON CYCLE
AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN
EFFECT AT ALL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NED
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