369
FXUS62 KCHS 191814
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
214 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK, THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
ALOFT, STRONG RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
STALLING THURSDAY, THEN GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS. THE FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES AND LINGERS, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RISE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT PROGRESSES WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR IN
DETERMINING RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT DISPLACED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, A DRIER SOLUTION IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES PROBABILITIES FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE
DECREASED TO BELOW 25%, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY
CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER INLAND NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A LOWER-IMPACT RAINFALL
SCENARIO, SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS GIVEN POTENTIAL SHIFTS
IN THE FRONT OVER THE COMING DAYS. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER,
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
SHEAR, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
19/18Z TAF DISCUSSION: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR FOR THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THE REGION
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
EACH DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: INFLUENCES FROM THE NEW MOON CYCLE COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR ALL
BEACHES TODAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS
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