447
FXUS62 KCHS 202326
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
726 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND, THOUGH NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND,
THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
ALOFT, DEEP RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
STREWN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AS A WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPS. TRENDS STILL FAVOR A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT DISPLACED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
THE NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, RIDGING ALOFT WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS, WHICH COULD REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER, THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST. COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND SHEAR, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
00Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR. SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT PERSISTS
THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATES
ITSELF OFFSHORE. MODEST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO
HOLD STEADY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS
(0-20 NM) AND 3 TO 4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60 NM).
MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY QUITE TRANQUIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED MARINE: AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE ONSHORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WITH WIND SPEEDS TOPPING OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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