018
FXUS62 KCHS 211113
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
EXPECT SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO SAG
OVER THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN UPTICK
IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS NOTED IN DAYS PAST, THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS INLAND NEAR THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, FOR AREAS
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO STAY FAIRLY LIMITED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT OVERHEAD. IN TERMS OF SEVERE
WEATHER, THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE JUST
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. THIS, COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND SHEAR, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
LOW ACROSS OUR AREA - AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOK TO CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN NATURE OF ANY SHOWER/STORM. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO PREVAIL, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
21/12Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING FOG QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
THE COMING HOURS, ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE ARE LIKELY
AGAIN TODAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NEAR THE BEACHES
AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT, EXCEPT NEAR 15 KT
AT TIMES IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
EACH DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3FT/9S AND SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WELL INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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